bubble bubble bubble, crash crash crash
3 reasons why the credit/housing bubble is worse than 1929
A bit dated now, but the parallels he draws have proved accurate. A few comments:
- Although he's careful to make the distinction, obviously there's some interrelation between housing/credit crash and the overall economy. How much, though? My portfolio is down about 20% from the highs in October (naively bought too much AXP, whoops) so I'm wary of pulling out at a loss, but if the stock market follows the housing market down - with experts predicting that hits bottom in 2009-2011 - moving it elsewhere may be wise. I'll have to think on that one, in part because choosing a place to put money to offset both the declining dollar and US(and to a somewhat lesser extent, global) economy is difficult... hmm. Gold?
- Another mention of the Fed's complicity in the crash. To be honest, these people have a tough job - history (both of the Fed and other countries' equivalent institutions) shows that mismanaging monetary policy can seriously fuck up a national economy, and even boards of people with doctorates in economics and dozens of years of experience make macro-scale mistakes. Frankly, I don't have a lot of confidence in Bernanke at the moment.

the five stages of a housing bubble
Are we in stage 2? 3? Might depend on the region - the Minneapolis area is obviously less affected than, say, southern california...
- posted by vcmc @  3/06/2008 06:48:00 PM